This is perhaps the most important thing that you have said here. Unless we admit the possibility that someone right outside the circle is effectively blackmailing members of the COM to oppose Verita, we can eliminate a lot of suspects and bring it down to about nine names.
A look at the minutes of COM meetings shows that there are two categories of attender: the full members and invitees. Assistant ministers can sit in to represent their ministers, but the CM's two deputies do not attend other than as invitees. For once in his life, the immediate obstacle to Verita is not PB. I would also be surprised if the assistant ministers would of their own initiative attempt to block a proposal.
So the full members of the COM are:
CM Gorst - who has declared in favour of Verita and can be eliminated: Ozouf, MacLean, Le Marquand, Pryke, Le Gresley, Ryan, Green, Lewis, Duhamel
Let's take a look at them in turn.
Senator Le Gresley - having forced the States to keep promises about holding a COI in the first place, he is as unlikely a suspect as could be.
Senator MacLean - is a serial non-attender at COM, and I rather think that rules him out.
Deputy Duhamel - I can't see a motive. The only thing you might hold against him is that he is about the oldest hand here - 19 years in the States.
Deputy Lewis - again, I can't see a motive.
Deputy Green - not a long serving politician, but interesting that he returned to Jersey in 1981 to work as a caterer for Jersey Health and Social Services. Did this mean working at HdlG?
Senator Ozouf - has track record in brushing unpleasant stuff under the carpet and moving on (Lime Grove, GST, etc). But he of all members has the least personal connection with events - he was barely even out of university at the 1994 cut-off.
Deputy Pryke - if the rule of "corporation sole" is applied to her, she would have a lot of awkward questions to answer. Her voting record in the last States suggests very little capacity for independent thought, so it would depend who was pulling her strings: she could be part of the bloc, but not the initiator.
Deputy Ryan - the same applies on "corporation sole". He is an older hand, having served in the States 2002-8, but the limited biography I have found suggests he had no particular interest at that point in children's welfare: again, possibly a bloc member, but I don't think the prime mover.
Senator Le Marquand - prime suspect. Gorst wanted to move him out of Home Affairs but after he lost to Ozouf in the vote for Treasury minister, he hung onto it. If the COI reveals significant mismanagement, his use of the corporation sole rule would surely put him in jeopardy - either as incompetent, or dishonest, or both. It would also ruin his credibility with the church." End