Saturday, September 24, 2016

I GO ALL NOSTRADAMUS AND GIVE YOU THE (MEDIUM TERM FINANCIAL PLAN ) DEBATE AND RESULT BEFORE IT EVEN BEGINS .






NOSTRADAMUS GIVES US THE MTFP







THE MEDIUM TERM FINANCIAL PLAN ( MTFP)


I GO ALL NOSTRADAMUS


THE BIG DEBATE IN THE STATES OF JERSEY


HUFF  PUFF AND A WHOLE LOT OF GUFF


THIS IS WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN BEFORE THE DEBATE HAS EVEN BEGUN.



The Chief Minister will call in Collective Responsibility. 


All Ministers - Assistant Minister plus the Constables will come on board. Let us not forget the Deputies that always vote with the executive. They will have achieved 27 votes or more before the debate has even begun. That means they have control over the entire debate. Yes, we will have all the normal guff that goes with these debates. We will have some deputies expressing how they had wished for more information (even though 80% of the states members wouldn't have read the endless miles of gibberish put forward as the MTFP) just so they can then say "I will support it now. But, hope In the future, the COM will learn from this." Hence voting with no moral or social conscience.

The Constables, in protecting their little fiefdoms of power, will do as they always do. They never go against their Masters. Their Masters could turn nasty and cast them aside from the chamber if they dared vote with a moral, social and independent conscience.  Again, one or two will cast their votes in the opposite direction so as to give the appearance that they are independent. They are the Constable Party.


The MTFP will then sail through the states after 3 days of talking crap.   


Collective Responsibility assures this.


AMENDMENTS 

All the Amendments will be defeated unless the COM decide otherwise. They normally give way on one amendment or at an extreme push two. Listen and watch. I'm not sure how many amendments have been lodged and nor do I care as they are already defeated. 


Scrutiny will be pushed aside like an irritating  mosquito. 


That Ladies and Gentleman is the MTFP before the debate has begun.


Nostradamus has spoken 




Rico Sorda


Part time investigative Journalist.

PS


As for the live streaming?


As the old saying goes.

"YOU CAN'T POLISH A TURD"


Have a nice Weekend.


56 comments:

Anonymous said...

That is exactly what will happen. Its a done deal, the usual detractors will oppose it , to no avail , there will be some hand wringing a bit of " soul searching" and then BOOM. Its done. The only real hope is if the Unions take real disruptive effective industrial action and bring the place to a standstill.

Anonymous said...

Right call again Rico but the public can't see how it's done. If they did there would be uproar on the streets.

Anonymous said...

Mike Higgins is the only big hitter left in the house who speaks up against the COM. Bring bag Big Trev Pitman is what I say.

Anonymous said...

I've missed your regular blogging Rico and i'm pleased to see you haven't lost your touch. Needless to say you are spot on with your predictions AGAIN.

Finding Me:Mo said...

Great post Rico!

Anonymous said...

"All Ministers - Assistant Minister plus the Constables will come on board. Let us not forget the Deputies that always vote with the executive. They will have achived 27 votes or more before the debate has even begun."

How can this be changed then?

Anonymous said...

I remember you once predicted a speech Philip Ozouf would deliver in the states chamber and your predicted speech was uncannily similar to the one Pip O did actually deliver! Have you got a link to your predicted Ozouf speech?

PS. It's an absolute nightmare trying to leave a comment on here because of the verification thingy.

rico sorda said...

The Jersey Media need to start focusing on how the States of Jersey actually operates. The Constable Party along with Collective Responsibility needs discussing in depth in the Media.

All backbencher politicians with lodged amendments know that they are going to fail unless its inoffensive enough for the COM to allow it through. This is how it works. This is how it always works.

This is why the average Jersey person who is struggling to make ends meet is continually shafted by our Government. They are only represented by at least 10 politicians. The others are egotistical, ladder climbing,morally dead idiots who think of nothing but self promotion in the hope of a blackberry and ministerial position.

I know there is trouble leaving comments. Hope to have this sorted some time today.

rico sorda said...

I hope leaving comments will be easier now.

As for the Ozouf speech I can't remember if it was him or Le Suer. I got it bang on. Sst on the beach and wrote it. I just knew what he would say and how he would say it.

The States - so predictable.

Anonymous said...

I think the only way forward is party politics - Look at Peter Mac and Murray Norton for instance. They were elected because they were known by islanders because of their celebrity status and not for their ability as politicians. They lied to the public when seeking election and now there is nothing we - the public - can do about it. If they were members of a party (which they covertly are) we could vote that party out at the next election. Both now assistant ministers and head nodding dogs for the Gorst party and nothing we can do about it.

Anonymous said...

I think the only way forward is party politics - Look at Peter Mac and Murray Norton for instance. They were elected because they were known by islanders because of their celebrity status and not for their ability as politicians. They lied to the public when seeking election and now there is nothing we - the public - can do about it. If they were members of a party (which they covertly are) we could vote that party out at the next election. Both now assistant ministers and head nodding dogs for the Gorst party and nothing we can do about it.

Anonymous said...

The whole system is corrupt and we have an elected dictatorship. Good to see you blogging again Rico and bang on the money with your observations again.

Anonymous said...

Peter Mac and Murray Norton must pay with their seats after the way they have betrayed their constituents. Smash and Nicey are a couple of clowns who should have no place in a legislator. They were elected on a pack of lies.

Anonymous said...

We need people like big Trev Pitman in the states to start shaking things up again I hardly ever listen to it now he's not in there. Do you think more people will get involved now it is going to be streamed online Rico?

Rigger Yarns said...

Great post Rico and called it how it is. As an aside I don't suppose you would know Sam Mezec's landlord's phone number would you?

rico sorda said...

Not a clue. Message Sam. Thanks

chevlier blanc said...

I like it! Can't polish a turd.

Anonymous said...

Can't wait to see if you have called this right. Very funny post.

Anonymous said...

Rico has called it right every time up until now and he has called this one right too. I look forward to your "I told you so" blog Rico.

rico sorda said...

Lets all keep an eye on how the Constables vote during the MTFP.

The COM need them. Lets see if they deliver.

Anonymous said...

The Constables will do what they are told to do by Philip Bailhache.

Anonymous said...

What do you think the constables will do Rico?

Anonymous said...

"YOU CAN'T POLISH A TURD"

I'm sorry Rico... I agree with you on most things, but one this I can't.
The mythbusters debunked this one two seasons ago.

You CAN polish a turd... it's just you won't want to.

Anonymous said...



You have worked out the maths and the plan Rico and you are correct in your Analysis. Twenty two ( or three ) ministers and assistant ministers, sackable if they step out of line, plus the brown nosed puppet deputies give around as you say 27. This equates to over half the states political membership of 49. The politicians who do as there told obviously get all the jollies to far off lands.

Then you have constables who by nature are conservative centre right. They are rewarded by given £250,000 mini roundabouts and favour by the CoM.

The mood in Jersey ( as in other countries ) is that people are getting deeply resentful and detached from smooth talking spivs who once voted in to office, then mis manage, forget their promises, and openly lie ( there will be no building until tenants have signed on the dotted line ) and then spend money from the public purse as if it were their own.

Your are almost certainly correct about the crap MTFP. What CM Gorst has appeared to forget is the the Fiscal Policy Group said in their report ( its online ) if Jersey starts on a downward trend Do not increase taxes - but - Do reduce Government spending.

All we hear is more taxes ( including stealth and user pays ) on the way, with cuts to quality of life for islanders through frontline service cuts. Hospital treatment to take longer as an example.

Keep up the good work Rico, truth returns as an enemy when it has been forgotten as a friend.

Boatyboy.

Anonymous said...

Rico, how the hell do you know this? The vote in the states just now was exactly what you predicted. Even down to the two constables voting the other way. Amazing.

Anonymous said...

Rico you have called it right. Sarah Ferguson's amendment got defeated with only two constables supporting her - does anybody know who the two constables were?

Anonymous said...

Peter Mac and Murray Nortrn (Smashy and Nicey) towing the party line along with the wholly owned Andrew Lewis voting against Ferguson amendment.

Anonymous said...

Politicians in Jersey have just voted against an independent review into the island's tax system, 18 to 30.

It was proposed by Senator Sarah Ferguson, at a cost of £30,000.

Deputy Sam Mezec and Deputy Montfort Tadier voted for the review saying the tax system will not provide enough funding for public services in the future.

Senator Philip Bailhache and Senator Alan Maclean voted against the amendment arguing that the tax system is already being reviewed.

Senator Ferguson proposed the report because the profile of tax payers has changed 'considerably' since the introduction of the zero/10 tax system.

Those changes include:
The total number of taxpayers is falling and around 10,000 tax payers have been lost
The number of people paying 20% tax is falling
The number of people in the non-tax paying band is falling
The number of people in the marginal band is increasing
Senator Ferguson says is it concerned that number of people paying tax has fallen, despite the population growing.

The review would have looked at those changes as well as:
Money made by Jersey companies
The effects of high levels of immigration on the economy

Sue Sharrock Young said...

Called it right again Rico keep up the good work mate.

Bigger Darnes said...

You were spot on the money again Rico as Ferguson lost her amendment and the Constables all stuck together.

As an aside you wouldn't happen to know Sam Mezec's landlord's phone number would you?

rico sorda said...

Constables Rennard and Constable Taylor.

God the States is predictable.

Jill Gracia said...

Good to have you back Rico, and as ever you are 'on the money'!

Results will be as expected, but pleased that at least two Constables have cohones. I will never forget my Constable canvassing a couple of years ago, and I asked him if he was going to break the mould and vote with his conscience and for what his parishioners would want. I clearly remember him saying he was his own man and would not go down that road. As expected - empty words ever since.

rico sorda said...

My blog posting is on the money so far.

1 amendment successful. Deputy Tadier asking for £30,000 for Jerriais.

Now it's back to type with Deputy Southern UP.

Rico

rico sorda said...

Jill

From my blog posting.

"The Constables, in protecting their little fiefdoms of power, will do as they always do. They never go against their Masters. Their Masters could turn nasty and cast them aside from the chamber if they dared vote with a moral, social and independent conscience Again, one or two will cast their votes in the opposite direction so as to give the appearance that they are independent. They are the Constable Party."

Rico

Anonymous said...

Round 2 of the MTFP today and I will be listening to see if your predictions remain on track Rico. So far you are on the money.

Anonymous said...

What ever happened to Crowcroft and Mezbourian? They used to be independent thinkers but since Pip Bailhache was elected Crowcroft has had his head stuck up his a@se and since Mezbourian was made assistant minister she has turned against the electorate by being a lapdog to Gorst and the establishment. Any thoughts on this Rico?

Anonymous said...

I wrote the comment @ September 28, 2016 at 8:11 AM and after the Southern amendment failing you are still bang on the money Rico. Why is it only one or two constables who vote against the establishment once in a while? If they are not a party their votes would be more diverse - somewhere in the region of at leat 5 or 6 - but it's always only one or two. You've opened my eyes to the constable/establishment party.

Anonymous said...

Andrew Lewis who is owned by the Establishment because of his illegal suspension of Graham Power is voting with the Establishment.

Anonymous said...

Did you hear Ozouf plead with the Constables over the Le Fondre amendment? He didn't plead with Deputies or Senators. The Constables are the power in the States and people need to learn this when one considers 11 out of twelve of them weren't elected so have no mandate to even be in there never mind hold so much power.

Lucida said...

No backbencher proposition of any real significance will ever succeed with the Government as it is currently constituted. Without Government reform, and by that I mean a significantly smaller, leaner Government (see Clothier)the current trajectory will be maintained. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas, we need to stop electing Turkeys.

Anonymous said...

It would be nice to know that things are likely to change by the time of the next election in 2018. But realistically its not going to happen. Like it or not Gorst is doing better as Chief Minister than most people had hoped and predicted. He is leading his Ministers, Assistant Ministers and Constables better than his two predecessors ever did.... Sadly, he is doing enough to keep the status quo for at least the next two elections!?

Anonymous said...

Things will not change until Jersey adopts party politics. The COM and Constables are a covert political party and should declare themselves as such. The problem with that is the people would then have a chance to change the government and their vote might mean something that's why it would never happen.

rico sorda said...

The real and only story coming out of the MTFP debate is the power of the Constable Party.

Without their bloc-vote the COM are virtually powerless. That's why its so important they remain in the states.

The Constables vote as a party. The voting pattern shows this. 11/12 are unelected. Their meetings are secret. We know nothing of their politics and policies apart from supporting the COM.

First up this morning Deputy Southern. He will lose with 35 votes against.

Lucida said...

Well NostraSorda, I am sure you are right about Southern this morning. However, I can't agree with the comments at 8.48PM in relation to Gorst. Whilst you can't blame Gorst for kicking the two legs of agriculture and tourism off Jersey's economic stool or indeed for the global economic crisis of 2007, the actions of this Government since that time have meant that Jersey is performing worse now than ever economically and the poor are disproportionately worse off as a direct result of the policies of this Government. Zero ten and GST, whilst the brain child I suspect of Ozouf, are the killer blows to the economy. This MTFP will finish the job.

Anonymous said...

Right again Rico and very close to the numbers you predicted. Southern's amendment lost with thirty votes against and two abstentions. You put the MSM political commentators to shame.

Anonymous said...

All going to the NostraSorda predictions after today's circus. Le Fondre, Mezec, Southern all losing their amendments thanks to the Constables bar 1 or two of them.

Anonymous said...

With all the Gerrymandering over the years I've lost count of the states numbers.

How many are voters are their in the chamber and how many votes are secured by collective responsibility?

Anonymous said...

Loving the NostraSorda handle - it should be a twitter hashtag - keep up the good work Rico or should that be #NostraSorda?

Anonymous said...

NostraSorda you are on the money. 100%on the money.

Lucida said...

A brilliant speech from Deputy Montfort Tadier summing up the MTFP this evening. I urge your readers to listen to this bright young man and at the next election, make him a Senator and kick out Ozouf. You won't believe the difference that could make.

Anonymous said...

Deputies Norton and Maclinton have definitely nailed their colours to the mask with their vote with the Establishment on the Health Tax....
This nailing their colours to the mask on this one have definitely put nails in their political coffins!?

Anonymous said...

Tinm for a well deserved "I told you so" blog Rico? #NostraSorda

Anonymous said...


Deputy Lewis abstained, causing an equal vote for yes and no therefore the status quo remained. Why did he not vote no and show backbone like a man ?

rico sorda said...

#nostrasorda will be blogging next week on the I told you so mandate.

Anonymous said...

Deputies Norton & Mclinton. Voted in by the radio listening, middle class women of Jersey.

Jill Gracia said...

Eeeer - sorry Anonymous.

Definitely not by this one nor several others I know!